In about a year from now a new President of Nigeria would be inaugurated in Abuja. This president would be a member of PDP. Some of my readers will be shocked by this statement, but I advise them to save this memo to beat me on the head come May 2019. I am also saving it to beat them on the head when I will be saying “told you so”.
Currently Nigeria is dominated by APC. They control the majority of the Senate, have the presidency, control most of the House and are in control of most of the states. With such dominance it is very difficult to think that such a party could lose a general election. But come with me.
- From the get go APC was not and has not been a party. It is an assembly of disgruntled strangers who were united by a consuming hatred of former President Jonathan. Hatred is a consuming element necessary to united people but not sufficient to sustain an organized political party. A political party needs an ideology. A political Part needs to have a belief of how to govern if they win power. A political party is organized to win power. But without a set of beliefs on how to govern, the party will be unable to govern and will disintegrate. And that is what is happening to APC.
- Majority of Nigerians believed that PDP housed many corrupt people and was disillusioned. Today those corrupt politicians in PDP have joined APC and the people’s disillusionment has followed them to APC.
- Most of the people who hated/feared Mr. Jonathan were people with strong political ambitions. They hoped that with GEJ out of the way it would be their turn to become the president. With the short time they had they settled on Mr. Buhari as the “temporary” president. And now that “temporary” president wants to be permanent. And they are chagrined. Piqued. And want out. They want a third way. The third way might work but it is too late for 2019.
- Things could have been manageable if the temporary president had performed well and won the hearts of the citizens. He did not. Things could have been manageable if the temporary president is healthy and trying his best. He is not. Even as I write the president is again out of the country on medical leave of absence (the fifth time in 3 years of service).
APC’s chances could improve if the party has the guts to stand up to PMB and force him out of the nomination process. Those who love the country more than they love power are working towards this result. But they are the minority. Those who benefit from both PMB’s presidency and his ill health are working towards ensuring that PMB remains a bed ridden president. They form the inside party and are stronger than the patriots. A divided party does not win elections.
On the other hand PDP has purged itself of the worst corrupt politicians. Its force is spent, but Nigerians are in a position to hold their nose and vote for PDP. Nigerians will not be happy but will be choosing a less bad Party over a worse party.
2019 is around the corner.
We shall see.
Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba
May 11, 2018