Home News YIAGA AFRICA: Results Used To Declare Buhari Winner Meets Estimated Range

YIAGA AFRICA: Results Used To Declare Buhari Winner Meets Estimated Range

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YIAGA AFRICA, a civil society organisation, on Wednesday verified the presidential elections results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
It said the result, which was used by INEC to declare President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as winner of the election, fell within its Parallel Vote Tabulation estimated range.
Dr. Hussaini Abdu, Chair, YIAGA AFRICA Watching The Vote, made this known at a news conference on the group’s Statement on the 2019 Presidential Election Results in Abuja.
According to Abdu, for the 2019 Presidential Elections, YIAGA AFRICA’s WTV utilised the PVT methodology, the gold standard citizen observation methodology that uses statistics and ICT.
He said the group deployed 3,030 observer teams in pairs to a random statistical sample of 1,515 polling units located in every local government area and states of the country.
He said the deployment to a statistical sample of polling units enabled YIAGA AFRICA to independently project the vote shares that each candidate should have received within a narrow range.
He said: “YIAGA AFRICA’s findings show that for the presidential election the All Progressive Congress (APC) should receive between 50.0 per cent and 55.8 per cent of the vote.
“The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) should receive between 41.2 per cent and 47.0 per cent of the vote; these figures are consistent with the official results as just announced by INEC.
“For both APC and PDP the official results fall within the PVT estimated ranges.”
Abdu said YIAGA AFRICA results statement was based on reports from 1,491 polling units, which are 98.4 per cent of sampled polling units.
He said YIAGA AFRICA’s projections were also consistent with the officially announced vote shares for the other 71 parties which contested in the presidential election.
He said that the group’s projections were based on the results announced in the polling units and would have detected any significant manipulation occurring during collation at the ward, local government area, State and national levels.
Abdu said INEC official results for turnout and rejected ballots were also generally consistent with YIAGA AFRICA WTV estimates.
He said YIAGA AFRICA estimated that turnout was 37.5 per cent with a margin of error between 35.9 per cent and 39.1 per cent and INEC’s official turnout was 35.7 per cent.
He said similarly YIAGA AFRICA’s estimated rejected ballots were 4.0 per cent with a margin of error of between 3.4 per cent and 4.6 per cent, while INEC’s official figure for rejected ballot was 4.5 per cent.
Abdu, however said the February 23 presidential election was characterised by similar shortcomings that marred previous national elections in Nigeria.
He said as in past elections, logistical challenges faced by INEC resulted in widespread late opening of polling units and malfeasance by political parties compromised the ability of citizens to vote.
Abdu called on INEC to provide clarity on the pressing concern to Nigerians which were the 3.3 per cent cancelled ballots of all registered voters.
This, he said, was because the figure was four times higher than the rate from 2015 when registered voters in cancelled polling units was less than 1 per cent.

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